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NBA Player Prop Breakeven Calculator
Points, rebounds, assists or a Power Play slip: enter the price and see the hit rate the prop needs before it makes you money.
Payouts: PrizePicks Power standard rate, as of Oct 16, 2026 (Potential Outcomes page, Sept 9, 2026). Demons/Goblins and promos pay differently; always check your app.
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| Price | Breakeven hit rate | Same as laying |
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Breakeven = the hit rate where expected profit is zero. Pick'em figures are per pick, assume independent picks and an all-must-hit (Power-style) payout, and ignore pushes, voids and reboots.
How to use this calculator
Choose sportsbook odds or a pick'em multiplier. For odds, enter the price on your side (and the other side if you want the no-vig probability and hold). For pick'em, pick the PrizePicks Power standard rate or type any multiplier, then choose how many picks are on the slip. The green line shows the hit rate you need to break even; add your own hit rate to see expected profit per $10. The table lists breakevens for common prices. Copy the result or save it as an image.
Why breakeven matters for NBA player props
Every player prop has a hit rate you need just to break even, and it is set by the price. A points, rebounds, assists or PRA over at −110 needs 52.4%; at −130 it needs 56.5%. On pick'em apps the same idea applies per pick: a 3-pick Power Play at 6x needs every pick to hit 55.0%, so each pick is priced like a −122 bet. If your read on a player can't clear that number, the price is the problem, not the pick.
When you have both sides of a prop, the calculator strips out the vig to show the no-vig (fair) probability, which is the market's own estimate. Compare your hit rate with both numbers. For pick'em slips, test Power against Flex in the Power vs Flex picker or see full payouts in the PrizePicks calculator. Convert any price with the odds converter, and check expected value on a single bet with the EV calculator.
FAQ
What hit rate do NBA props need to break even?
It depends on the price. Breakeven = 1 ÷ decimal odds: −110 needs 52.4%, −115 needs 53.5%, −120 needs 54.5% and −130 needs 56.5%. Plus-money props need less: +100 needs 50%.
How do you calculate breakeven for a pick'em slip?
For a slip where every pick must hit, per-pick breakeven = (1 ÷ multiplier) to the power of 1 ÷ picks. A 2-pick at 3x needs 57.7% per pick, a 3-pick at 6x needs 55.0%, and a 6-pick at 37.5x needs 54.7%.
What is the no-vig probability of a prop?
Convert both sides' odds to implied probabilities, then divide your side's probability by their sum. For −115/−105 that is 53.5% ÷ (53.5% + 51.2%) ≈ 51.1%. The gap between the sum and 100% is the book's hold.