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CLV Calculator (closing line value)
Enter the price you bet and the closing price to see whether you beat the close, by how many cents, and what that edge is worth against the no-vig closing line.
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| Price | American | Decimal | Implied % |
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Compares prices on the same bet. For a spread or total that closed at a different number (−3 to −3.5), the price-only CLV leaves out the half point; check the move on the line movement checker.
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How to use this calculator
Pick American or decimal odds, enter the price you bet and the closing price on the same side, and add the other side's closing price to measure against the no-vig close (recommended). The green line shows the cents you beat the close by, the edge in % and the gap in implied-probability points; enter a stake to see what that edge is worth per bet. Copy the result or save it as an image to keep a log.
Why closing line value predicts long-term results
Win-loss records are noisy. Over 1,000 bets at −110, a bettor with no edge will land anywhere from about 47% to 53% wins about 95% of the time, a range wider than most real edges. The closing line is a better yardstick: it is the price after the market has absorbed injury news, weather and the biggest bets, so it is the sharpest public estimate of the true chance. Beat it consistently and you are usually betting positive expected value, whether or not this week’s results show it. That is why sharp bettors track CLV, and why books watch it when they decide who to limit.
Measure against the no-vig close when you can. The posted closing price includes the book’s margin, which inflates the implied chance on your side and so overstates your edge; removing the vig from both sides gives the fair price. Cents are the simplest scale (−110 to −130 is 20 cents; +105 to −105 is 10), and implied-probability points let you compare favorites and underdogs. See how lines moved from the game-week opener on the line movement checker, follow each team’s open-to-close history on the NFL team line-move pages, and turn an edge into a bet size with the Kelly calculator.
FAQ
What is closing line value (CLV)?
Closing line value is how much better your price was than the final price before the game started. Bet a team at −110 that closes −130 (other side +110) and you beat the close by 20 cents. Against the no-vig close that is about a 3.6% edge, because the close is the market's best estimate of the true chance.
Why does CLV predict long-term results?
The closing line has absorbed nearly all the information and money on a game, so it is the sharpest public estimate of the true probability. If you regularly get better prices than the close, you are usually getting positive expected value, and CLV shows that after a few hundred bets, long before win-loss records separate skill from luck.
How do you calculate CLV in percent?
Remove the vig from the close: divide each side's implied probability by their total to get the fair probability. Your edge is your decimal odds × the fair closing probability − 1. At −110 (1.909) against a fair close of 54.3%, that is 1.909 × 0.543 − 1 ≈ +3.6%.