← All markets · Elections
Next French Presidential Election
Market favorite · Polymarket
Marine Le Pen: 46%
≈ +119 in American odds (no vig) · 7-day change: +5 pts · Closes Apr 19, 2027 · Data as of 2026-10-16 23:27 UTC
What’s moving
Marine Le Pen is the market favorite at 46% (+5 pts over 7 days). Biggest 7-day move among tracked outcomes: Édouard Philippe, -6 pts. Prices are crowd-implied probabilities, not predictions from Linewire.
Current probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | ≈ American odds |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 46% | +119 |
| Édouard Philippe | 18% | +471 |
| David Lisnard | 12% | +766 |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 12% | +770 |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 3% | +2799 |
| François Hollande | 2% | +4344 |
| Gabriel Attal | 2% | +5961 |
| Bruno Retailleau | <1% | +11665 |
| Sarah Knafo | <1% | +11665 |
| Christine Lagarde | <1% | +13233 |
| Jordan Bardella | <1% | +18082 |
| Dominique de Villepin | <1% | +19900 |
Probability = last traded price of the “Yes” contract. Convert any price with the odds converter or size a payout with the payout calculator.
Odds history
Marine Le Pen: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 37% |
| Sep 25 | 38% |
| Oct 2 | 44% |
| Oct 9 | 41% |
| Oct 16 | 46% |
Édouard Philippe: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 24% |
| Sep 25 | 24% |
| Oct 2 | 20% |
| Oct 9 | 24% |
| Oct 16 | 18% |
David Lisnard: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 8% |
| Sep 25 | 7% |
| Oct 2 | 8% |
| Oct 9 | 13% |
| Oct 16 | 12% |
Source
Data: Polymarket public API, Polymarket market page. Linewire is not affiliated with Polymarket. Availability of prediction markets varies by jurisdiction.
Get “Markets moving” in the free Sunday email
Top line moves, DFS notes, and the week’s biggest prediction-market swings. Free, weekly, unsubscribe anytime.
Or see the newsletter page.