← All markets · Economy
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Market favorite · Polymarket
0 (0 bps): 97%
≈ -3075 in American odds (no vig) · 7-day change: +1 pts · Closes Jan 1, 2027 · Data as of 2026-10-16 23:27 UTC
What’s moving
0 (0 bps) is the market favorite at 97% (+1 pts over 7 days). Prices are crowd-implied probabilities, not predictions from Linewire.
Current probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | ≈ American odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 97% | -3075 |
| 1 (25 bps) | <1% | +11665 |
| 2 (50 bps) | <1% | +18082 |
| 3 (75 bps) | <1% | +22122 |
| 4 (100 bps) | <1% | +39900 |
| 5 (125 bps) | <1% | +199900 |
| 6 (150 bps) | <1% | +199900 |
| 7 (175 bps) | <1% | +199900 |
| 8 (200 bps) | <1% | +199900 |
| 9 (225 bps) | <1% | +199900 |
| 10 (250 bps) | <1% | +199900 |
| 11 (275 bps) | <1% | +199900 |
Probability = last traded price of the “Yes” contract. Convert any price with the odds converter or size a payout with the payout calculator.
Odds history
0 (0 bps): last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 16 | 93% |
| Sep 23 | 96% |
| Sep 30 | 97% |
| Oct 7 | 96% |
| Oct 16 | 97% |
1 (25 bps): last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 2% |
| Sep 25 | 2% |
| Oct 2 | 2% |
| Oct 9 | 2% |
| Oct 16 | <1% |
2 (50 bps): last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | <1% |
| Sep 25 | <1% |
| Oct 2 | <1% |
| Oct 9 | <1% |
| Oct 16 | <1% |
Source
Data: Polymarket public API, Polymarket market page. Linewire is not affiliated with Polymarket. Availability of prediction markets varies by jurisdiction.
Get “Markets moving” in the free Sunday email
Top line moves, DFS notes, and the week’s biggest prediction-market swings. Free, weekly, unsubscribe anytime.
Or see the newsletter page.