← All markets · Sports
F1 Constructors' Champion
Market favorite · Polymarket
Mercedes: 99%
≈ -11665 in American odds (no vig) · 7-day change: 0 pts · Closes Apr 1, 2027 · Data as of 2026-10-16 23:27 UTC
What’s moving
Mercedes is the market favorite at 99% (0 pts over 7 days). Tracked outcomes were essentially flat this week. Prices are crowd-implied probabilities, not predictions from Linewire.
Current probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | ≈ American odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | 99% | -11665 |
| Ferrari | <1% | +11011 |
| McLaren | <1% | +66567 |
| Red Bull Racing | <1% | +99900 |
Probability = last traded price of the “Yes” contract. Convert any price with the odds converter or size a payout with the payout calculator.
Odds history
Mercedes: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 16 | 96% |
| Sep 23 | 96% |
| Sep 30 | 98% |
| Oct 7 | 99% |
| Oct 16 | 99% |
Ferrari: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | <1% |
| Sep 25 | 1% |
| Oct 2 | <1% |
| Oct 9 | <1% |
| Oct 16 | <1% |
McLaren: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | <1% |
| Sep 25 | <1% |
| Oct 2 | <1% |
| Oct 9 | <1% |
| Oct 16 | <1% |
Source
Data: Polymarket public API, Polymarket market page. Linewire is not affiliated with Polymarket. Availability of prediction markets varies by jurisdiction.
Get “Markets moving” in the free Sunday email
Top line moves, DFS notes, and the week’s biggest prediction-market swings. Free, weekly, unsubscribe anytime.
Or see the newsletter page.