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Closest-to-even line · Polymarket
↑ 90,000: 55%
≈ -120 in American odds (no vig) · 7-day change: -8 pts · Closes Jan 1, 2027 · Data as of 2026-10-16 23:27 UTC
What’s moving
The closest-to-even line is “↑ 90,000” at 55% (-8 pts over 7 days). Biggest 7-day move among tracked outcomes: ↑ 95,000, -9 pts. Prices are crowd-implied probabilities, not predictions from Linewire.
Current probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | ≈ American odds |
|---|---|---|
| ↑ 95,000 | 34% | +190 |
| ↓ 60,000 | 16% | +506 |
| ↓ 70,000 | 39% | +156 |
| ↓ 65,000 | 22% | +344 |
| ↑ 200,000 | <1% | +10426 |
| ↑ 190,000 | 1% | +9900 |
| ↑ 180,000 | 2% | +5782 |
| ↑ 170,000 | 2% | +5961 |
| ↑ 160,000 | 2% | +4778 |
| ↑ 150,000 | 2% | +4551 |
| ↑ 140,000 | 3% | +3471 |
| ↑ 130,000 | 4% | +2757 |
Probability = last traded price of the “Yes” contract. Convert any price with the odds converter or size a payout with the payout calculator.
Odds history
↑ 90,000: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 44% |
| Sep 25 | 71% |
| Oct 2 | 78% |
| Oct 9 | 62% |
| Oct 16 | 55% |
↓ 70,000: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 57% |
| Sep 25 | 31% |
| Oct 2 | 30% |
| Oct 9 | 36% |
| Oct 16 | 38% |
↑ 95,000: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 28% |
| Sep 25 | 56% |
| Oct 2 | 57% |
| Oct 9 | 43% |
| Oct 16 | 34% |
Source
Data: Polymarket public API, Polymarket market page. Linewire is not affiliated with Polymarket. Availability of prediction markets varies by jurisdiction.
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