← All markets · Sports
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Market favorite · Polymarket
Harry Kane: 65%
≈ -184 in American odds (no vig) · 7-day change: +10 pts · Closes Jan 1, 2027 · Data as of 2026-10-16 23:27 UTC
What’s moving
Harry Kane is the market favorite at 65% (+10 pts over 7 days). Biggest 7-day move among tracked outcomes: Lamine Yamal, -16 pts. Prices are crowd-implied probabilities, not predictions from Linewire.
Current probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | ≈ American odds |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 65% | -184 |
| Lamine Yamal | 28% | +263 |
| Kylian Mbappé | 4% | +2253 |
| Lionel Messi | 3% | +3674 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | <1% | +18082 |
| Rodri | <1% | +22122 |
| Ousmane Dembélé | <1% | +39900 |
| Michael Olise | <1% | +39900 |
| Erling Haaland | <1% | +66567 |
| Fabian Ruiz | <1% | +66567 |
| Jude Bellingham | <1% | +199900 |
| Vinícius Júnior | <1% | +199900 |
Probability = last traded price of the “Yes” contract. Convert any price with the odds converter or size a payout with the payout calculator.
Odds history
Harry Kane: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 56% |
| Sep 25 | 58% |
| Oct 2 | 39% |
| Oct 9 | 55% |
| Oct 16 | 65% |
Lamine Yamal: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 17 | 22% |
| Sep 24 | 22% |
| Oct 1 | 49% |
| Oct 8 | 44% |
| Oct 16 | 28% |
Kylian Mbappé: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 17 | 11% |
| Sep 24 | 8% |
| Oct 1 | 4% |
| Oct 8 | 2% |
| Oct 16 | 4% |
Source
Data: Polymarket public API, Polymarket market page. Linewire is not affiliated with Polymarket. Availability of prediction markets varies by jurisdiction.
Get “Markets moving” in the free Sunday email
Top line moves, DFS notes, and the week’s biggest prediction-market swings. Free, weekly, unsubscribe anytime.
Or see the newsletter page.