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Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Market favorite · Polymarket
J.D. Vance: 47%
≈ +113 in American odds (no vig) · 7-day change: -2 pts · Closes Nov 8, 2028 · Data as of 2026-10-16 23:27 UTC
What’s moving
J.D. Vance is the market favorite at 47% (-2 pts over 7 days). Prices are crowd-implied probabilities, not predictions from Linewire.
Current probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | ≈ American odds |
|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 47% | +113 |
| Marco Rubio | 13% | +643 |
| Tucker Carlson | 3% | +3179 |
| Ron DeSantis | 2% | +3900 |
| Ted Cruz | 2% | +4248 |
| Donald Trump | 2% | +5028 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 2% | +5961 |
| Ivanka Trump | 1% | +9424 |
| Thomas Massie | <1% | +12400 |
| Brian Kemp | <1% | +18082 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | <1% | +22122 |
| Pete Hegseth | <1% | +22122 |
Probability = last traded price of the “Yes” contract. Convert any price with the odds converter or size a payout with the payout calculator.
Odds history
J.D. Vance: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 51% |
| Sep 25 | 51% |
| Oct 2 | 50% |
| Oct 9 | 48% |
| Oct 16 | 47% |
Marco Rubio: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 16% |
| Sep 25 | 15% |
| Oct 2 | 15% |
| Oct 9 | 15% |
| Oct 16 | 13% |
Tucker Carlson: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 4% |
| Sep 25 | 3% |
| Oct 2 | 3% |
| Oct 9 | 3% |
| Oct 16 | 3% |
Source
Data: Polymarket public API, Polymarket market page. Linewire is not affiliated with Polymarket. Availability of prediction markets varies by jurisdiction.
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