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Presidential Election Winner 2028
Market favorite · Polymarket
JD Vance: 21%
≈ +375 in American odds (no vig) · 7-day change: +1 pts · Closes Nov 8, 2028 · Data as of 2026-10-16 23:27 UTC
What’s moving
JD Vance is the market favorite at 21% (+1 pts over 7 days). Prices are crowd-implied probabilities, not predictions from Linewire.
Current probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | ≈ American odds |
|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 21% | +375 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13% | +660 |
| Jon Ossoff | 9% | +981 |
| Gavin Newsom | 9% | +1017 |
| Marco Rubio | 8% | +1158 |
| Kamala Harris | 4% | +2432 |
| Josh Shapiro | 3% | +3179 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 3% | +3536 |
| Ron DeSantis | 2% | +4778 |
| Andy Beshear | 2% | +5305 |
| Tucker Carlson | 2% | +5961 |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 2% | +6352 |
Probability = last traded price of the “Yes” contract. Convert any price with the odds converter or size a payout with the payout calculator.
Odds history
JD Vance: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 21% |
| Sep 25 | 21% |
| Oct 2 | 21% |
| Oct 9 | 20% |
| Oct 16 | 21% |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 13% |
| Sep 25 | 13% |
| Oct 2 | 13% |
| Oct 9 | 13% |
| Oct 16 | 13% |
Jon Ossoff: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 16 | 12% |
| Sep 23 | 11% |
| Sep 30 | 11% |
| Oct 7 | 10% |
| Oct 16 | 9% |
Source
Data: Polymarket public API, Polymarket market page. Linewire is not affiliated with Polymarket. Availability of prediction markets varies by jurisdiction.
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