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Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Market favorite · Polymarket
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 17%
≈ +504 in American odds (no vig) · 7-day change: -1 pts · Closes Nov 8, 2028 · Data as of 2026-10-16 23:27 UTC
What’s moving
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the market favorite at 17% (-1 pts over 7 days). Prices are crowd-implied probabilities, not predictions from Linewire.
Current probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | ≈ American odds |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 17% | +504 |
| Gavin Newsom | 15% | +549 |
| Jon Ossoff | 14% | +607 |
| Kamala Harris | 7% | +1318 |
| Josh Shapiro | 6% | +1639 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5% | +1920 |
| Andy Beshear | 3% | +2977 |
| James Talarico | 3% | +3674 |
| Wes Moore | 2% | +5028 |
| Raphael Warnock | 2% | +5163 |
| Mark Kelly | 2% | +5782 |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2% | +6352 |
Probability = last traded price of the “Yes” contract. Convert any price with the odds converter or size a payout with the payout calculator.
Odds history
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 19% |
| Sep 25 | 18% |
| Oct 2 | 18% |
| Oct 9 | 18% |
| Oct 16 | 17% |
Gavin Newsom: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 16% |
| Sep 25 | 15% |
| Oct 2 | 16% |
| Oct 9 | 15% |
| Oct 16 | 15% |
Jon Ossoff: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 16% |
| Sep 25 | 16% |
| Oct 2 | 15% |
| Oct 9 | 15% |
| Oct 16 | 14% |
Source
Data: Polymarket public API, Polymarket market page. Linewire is not affiliated with Polymarket. Availability of prediction markets varies by jurisdiction.
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