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Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Market favorite · Polymarket
Democratic Party: 64%
≈ -182 in American odds (no vig) · 7-day change: +2 pts · Closes Nov 4, 2026 · Data as of 2026-10-16 23:27 UTC
What’s moving
Democratic Party is the market favorite at 64% (+2 pts over 7 days). Prices are crowd-implied probabilities, not predictions from Linewire.
Current probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | ≈ American odds |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 64% | -182 |
| Republican Party | 36% | +174 |
Probability = last traded price of the “Yes” contract. Convert any price with the odds converter or size a payout with the payout calculator.
Odds history
Democratic Party: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 58% |
| Sep 25 | 62% |
| Oct 2 | 64% |
| Oct 9 | 62% |
| Oct 16 | 64% |
Republican Party: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 42% |
| Sep 25 | 38% |
| Oct 2 | 36% |
| Oct 9 | 36% |
| Oct 16 | 36% |
Source
Data: Polymarket public API, Polymarket market page. Linewire is not affiliated with Polymarket. Availability of prediction markets varies by jurisdiction.
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