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Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Market favorite · Polymarket
Democrats Sweep: 62%
≈ -167 in American odds (no vig) · 7-day change: 0 pts · Closes Nov 4, 2026 · Data as of 2026-10-16 23:27 UTC
What’s moving
Democrats Sweep is the market favorite at 62% (0 pts over 7 days). Tracked outcomes were essentially flat this week. Prices are crowd-implied probabilities, not predictions from Linewire.
Current probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | ≈ American odds |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats Sweep | 62% | -167 |
| R Senate, D House | 28% | +264 |
| Republicans Sweep | 10% | +953 |
| D Senate, R House | <1% | +10426 |
| Other | <1% | +66567 |
Probability = last traded price of the “Yes” contract. Convert any price with the odds converter or size a payout with the payout calculator.
Odds history
Democrats Sweep: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 60% |
| Sep 25 | 64% |
| Oct 2 | 64% |
| Oct 9 | 62% |
| Oct 16 | 62% |
R Senate, D House: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 30% |
| Sep 25 | 28% |
| Oct 2 | 30% |
| Oct 9 | 28% |
| Oct 16 | 28% |
Republicans Sweep: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 10% |
| Sep 25 | 8% |
| Oct 2 | 8% |
| Oct 9 | 8% |
| Oct 16 | 10% |
Source
Data: Polymarket public API, Polymarket market page. Linewire is not affiliated with Polymarket. Availability of prediction markets varies by jurisdiction.
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