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Which party will win the House in 2026?
Market favorite · Polymarket
Democratic Party: 90%
≈ -953 in American odds (no vig) · 7-day change: 0 pts · Closes Nov 4, 2026 · Data as of 2026-10-16 23:27 UTC
What’s moving
Democratic Party is the market favorite at 90% (0 pts over 7 days). Tracked outcomes were essentially flat this week. Prices are crowd-implied probabilities, not predictions from Linewire.
Current probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | ≈ American odds |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 90% | -953 |
| Republican Party | 10% | +953 |
Probability = last traded price of the “Yes” contract. Convert any price with the odds converter or size a payout with the payout calculator.
Odds history
Democratic Party: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 90% |
| Sep 25 | 92% |
| Oct 2 | 92% |
| Oct 9 | 90% |
| Oct 16 | 90% |
Republican Party: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 10% |
| Sep 25 | 8% |
| Oct 2 | 8% |
| Oct 9 | 10% |
| Oct 16 | 10% |
Source
Data: Polymarket public API, Polymarket market page. Linewire is not affiliated with Polymarket. Availability of prediction markets varies by jurisdiction.
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