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California Governor Election Winner
Market favorite · Polymarket
Xavier Becerra: 96%
≈ -2310 in American odds (no vig) · 7-day change: 0 pts · Closes Nov 4, 2026 · Data as of 2026-10-16 23:27 UTC
What’s moving
Xavier Becerra is the market favorite at 96% (0 pts over 7 days). Tracked outcomes were essentially flat this week. Prices are crowd-implied probabilities, not predictions from Linewire.
Current probabilities
| Outcome | Probability | ≈ American odds |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Becerra | 96% | -2310 |
| Steve Hilton | 4% | +2497 |
| Tom Steyer | <1% | +49900 |
| Rick Caruso | <1% | +199900 |
| Alex Padilla | <1% | +199900 |
| Katie Porter | <1% | +199900 |
| Antonio Villaraigosa | <1% | +199900 |
| Stephen Cloobeck | <1% | +199900 |
| Butch Ware | <1% | +199900 |
| Betty Yee | <1% | +199900 |
| Toni Atkins | <1% | +199900 |
| Kyle Langford | <1% | +199900 |
Probability = last traded price of the “Yes” contract. Convert any price with the odds converter or size a payout with the payout calculator.
Odds history
Xavier Becerra: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 16 | 95% |
| Sep 23 | 95% |
| Sep 30 | 96% |
| Oct 7 | 96% |
| Oct 16 | 96% |
Steve Hilton: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | 5% |
| Sep 25 | 5% |
| Oct 2 | 4% |
| Oct 9 | 4% |
| Oct 16 | 4% |
Tom Steyer: last 30 days
| Date (UTC) | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sep 18 | <1% |
| Sep 25 | <1% |
| Oct 2 | <1% |
| Oct 9 | <1% |
| Oct 16 | <1% |
Source
Data: Polymarket public API, Polymarket market page. Linewire is not affiliated with Polymarket. Availability of prediction markets varies by jurisdiction.
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